At first glance, it looks like buyers should have the upper hand: more homes are hitting the market in Santa Clara County. But despite higher inventory, prices haven’t taken a big dip — and here’s why.
Let’s break down the dynamics of inventory vs. pricing, based on real data from June 2025.
🏘️ Supply Is Up… But Not Surging
✅ Active listings are up roughly 12% year-over-year (YoY) across Santa Clara County. That’s giving buyers more options, especially between $1.1M and $1.6M.
✅ But total inventory remains about 40% below 2019 levels, which were the last pre-pandemic baseline.
✅ Most new listings are from estate sales, relocations, or investors — not distressed sellers.
💡 Translation: There’s more choice, but not enough pressure to cause major price drops.
🧍♂️ Sellers Aren’t Desperate
✅ Many homeowners refinanced into 2–3% interest rates and have no urgency to sell.
✅ Most have significant equity — even recent buyers from 2021–2022.
✅ Sellers are more likely to rent out or hold than accept a lowball offer.
💡 Local note: In Cambrian and Almaden, withdrawn and canceled listings have ticked up slightly — showing that sellers will walk away rather than sell at a discount.
🏦 Buyer Demand Is Softer — But Still Active
✅ More buyers are writing offers below asking, but only on homes that have sat 15+ days.
✅ Well-priced, move-in-ready homes in Santa Clara (95050), Willow Glen (95125), and Campbell (95008) are still seeing 2–4 offers.
✅ FHA and VA loan buyers are more active now, as competition eases and sellers are more open to flexible financing.
💡 Market stat: As of June 2025, median sale-to-list price ratio countywide is 99.1% — down from the 105% peak of 2022, but still strong.
📊 The Psychology Behind Pricing
✅ Sellers benchmark their expectations on neighbors’ past sales — not current trends.
✅ Many still hope for 2021 prices unless their agent sets clear expectations.
✅ Homes that sit longer than 21 days often reduce by $35K–$60K, but rarely more unless location or layout is flawed.
💡 Tip for sellers: Listing just 2–3% too high can double your days on market (DOM) and reduce perceived value.
🗝️ What This Means for You
➡ Buyers: You have more leverage than before — but only on homes that have lingered. Don't expect huge price drops in the top-performing zip codes.
➡ Sellers: It’s not 2021 anymore. Strategic pricing and good presentation matter more than ever. Be honest about what your home offers — and what it doesn’t.
📞 Want to review what’s happening in your neighborhood, or discuss whether now’s the right time to make a move? I’ll give you a clear picture based on current comps.
📚 Sources
Sources: MLSListings Inc. data, June 2025; California Association of Realtors (CAR); local MLS access.
